Initially scheduled for December 15, the government will finally present its pension reform on January 10. All the unions, the opposition and even part of the majority are contesting this project, the outline of which we already know. Indeed, this reform is already considered as potentially « explosive ».
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Pension reform: 65 or 64
The executive, to prepare minds, has multiplied press interviews and work meetings at Matignon. But also dinners at the top at the Élysée. However, marked by the presidential promise to postpone starting age from 62 to 65the plan is a foregone conclusion.
That said, now we are talking about a postponement to 64 years. Only, there is a counterpart: to increase the duration of contribution. The President of the Republic considers that the increase in the retirement age will not increase contributions. Nor even to reduce the amount of pensions.
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From generation 61
This pension reform will concern those on the eve of retirement. Note that the previous one spared those who were less than 5 years from their departure. The first targeted generation is that of the second half of the year 1961.
Theoretically, this population could end their professional career as early as next summer. This reform will affect everyone, even long careers. Those who started working at age 20 and those who expected to leave at 60 will have to work two more years.
In other words, at 62 years old. To compensate for this, new retirees will see the minimum amount of their pension to be increased to 1200 euros. If they have full careers of course. About the arduousness, we will reintroduce those who, during the last five years, made leave the device.
Including painful postures, handling heavy loads The government also plans to put an index of seniors. It is, it seems, for monitor business behavior in terms of training and recruiting 55-year-olds.
Pension reform: the timetable
The government no longer wants to drag things out and is giving time for consultation. Initially, the government was to present the project on December 15. However, Emmanuel Macron revealed on Monday that the presentation will be postponed to January 10, 2023.
Consultations with employers’ organizations and trade unions will begin on January 2. Emmanuel Macron would hope for the entry into force of the pension reform from summer 2023. However, the text will first have to pass through the two chambers, namely the National Assembly and the Senate.
That said, it is very likely that no majority emerges. If this is the case, the government will resort to the constitutional weapon of the 49.3 to pass it without a vote. This urgency is justified by the lasting return of massive deficits. These would exceed 12 billion in 2027.
The constitutional weapon of the 49.3
The battle promises to be tough in the Assembly. Indeed, all the opposition parties are against this pension reform project. Even within the majority, there are some who are reluctant. According to François Bayrou, president of the Modem, they did not do the educational work.
Mathilde Panot, leader of the LFI deputies, promises to « fight toe to toe » with a shower of amendments. As for Marine Le Pen, she declared her “absolutely total opposition on the merits” of reform. The government will have to receive the heads of the various parliamentary groups again at Matignon between Monday and Thursday morning.
Trade union coalition on pension reform
Moreover, not only one union accepts this pension reform, not even the CFDT. The latter having hardened its opposition on the subject during its last congress in June. Since then, Laurent Berger, its leader, has accentuated his opposition to any « age measure » which, according to him, would cause “an equally determined social reaction”.
Philippe Martinez, leader of the CGT, invites the executive to « take it seriously », without having any illusions. Indeed, according to him, « they are stubborn ». His troops too know how to show determination. The recent blockages of refineries have reminded us of this.
The warning shots, against a backdrop of record inflation and wage demands, also affected the electricity and gas industries. But also the RATP, whose special diets are in the sights of the government.
These warnings raise the specter of social conflict during the winter of 2019-2020. As a reminder, at the time, railway workers, truck drivers and dockers, among others, rallied to this conflict. However, the union strategists, in order to be able to do battle, are waiting for the right moment.
The eight national centers are planning a meeting in the wake of the Prime Minister’s announcements. They want to wedge their response around the date of presentation of the bill in the Council of Ministers. According to Emmanuel Macron, this will happen on January 10.